ISM policy seems to stop managing certain indexes

Versions (relevant - OpenSearch/Dashboard/Server OS/Browser):

Opensearch 2.10/2.11 // Opesearch Dashboards 2.10 // Debian 11

Describe the issue:
Some indexes are not rolled over by an ISM policy upon primary shard min size condition. I see that the shards are well over the configured threshold, but _ism/explain shows “Pending rollover…” with outdated size info and nothing happens

Configuration:

{
  "_id": "hot_warm_cold_delete",
  "_version": 13,
  "_seq_no": 37034630,
  "_primary_term": 61,
  "policy": {
    "policy_id": "hot_warm_cold_delete",
    "description": "Move older indexes to a warm/cold state/nodes over the time and eventually delete them",
    "last_updated_time": 1696931733833,
    "schema_version": 19,
    "error_notification": null,
    "default_state": "hot",
    "states": [
      {
        "name": "hot",
        "actions": [
          {
            "retry": {
              "count": 3,
              "backoff": "exponential",
              "delay": "1m"
            },
            "allocation": {
              "require": {
                "temp": "hot"
              },
              "include": {},
              "exclude": {},
              "wait_for": false
            }
          },
          {
            "retry": {
              "count": 3,
              "backoff": "exponential",
              "delay": "1m"
            },
            "rollover": {
              "min_index_age": "5d",
              "min_primary_shard_size": "30gb",
              "copy_alias": false
            }
          }
        ],
        "transitions": [
          {
            "state_name": "warm",
            "conditions": {
              "min_index_age": "5d"
            }
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "name": "warm",
        "actions": [
          {
            "retry": {
              "count": 3,
              "backoff": "exponential",
              "delay": "1m"
            },
            "allocation": {
              "require": {
                "temp": "warm"
              },
              "include": {},
              "exclude": {},
              "wait_for": false
            }
          },
          {
            "retry": {
              "count": 3,
              "backoff": "exponential",
              "delay": "1m"
            },
            "replica_count": {
              "number_of_replicas": 1
            }
          }
        ],
        "transitions": [
          {
            "state_name": "cold",
            "conditions": {
              "min_index_age": "30d"
            }
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "name": "cold",
        "actions": [
          {
            "retry": {
              "count": 3,
              "backoff": "exponential",
              "delay": "1m"
            },
            "allocation": {
              "require": {
                "temp": "cold"
              },
              "include": {},
              "exclude": {},
              "wait_for": false
            }
          },
          {
            "retry": {
              "count": 3,
              "backoff": "exponential",
              "delay": "1m"
            },
            "shrink": {
              "num_new_shards": 2
            }
          },
          {
            "retry": {
              "count": 3,
              "backoff": "exponential",
              "delay": "1m"
            },
            "force_merge": {
              "max_num_segments": 2
            }
          }
        ],
        "transitions": [
          {
            "state_name": "delete",
            "conditions": {
              "min_index_age": "183d"
            }
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "name": "delete",
        "actions": [
          {
            "retry": {
              "count": 3,
              "backoff": "exponential",
              "delay": "1m"
            },
            "delete": {}
          }
        ],
        "transitions": []
      }
    ],
    "ism_template": [
      {
        "index_patterns": [
          "pe.*"
        ],
        "priority": 201,
        "last_updated_time": 1686817696462
      }
    ]
  }
}

Relevant Logs or Screenshots:
_plugins/_ism/explain/.ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164

{
  ".ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164": {
    "index.plugins.index_state_management.policy_id": "hot_warm_cold_delete",
    "index.opendistro.index_state_management.policy_id": "hot_warm_cold_delete",
    "index": ".ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164",
    "index_uuid": "a5yoXC3DR5CBm82H2rnOew",
    "policy_id": "hot_warm_cold_delete",
    "policy_seq_no": -2,
    "policy_primary_term": 0,
    "rolled_over": false,
    "index_creation_date": 1698679072350,
    "state": {
      "name": "hot",
      "start_time": 1698679460803
    },
    "action": {
      "name": "rollover",
      "start_time": 1698679979151,
      "index": 1,
      "failed": false,
      "consumed_retries": 0,
      "last_retry_time": 0
    },
    "step": {
      "name": "attempt_rollover",
      "start_time": 1698679979151,
      "step_status": "condition_not_met"
    },
    "retry_info": {
      "failed": false,
      "consumed_retries": 0
    },
    "info": {
      "message": "Pending rollover of index [index=.ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164]",
      "conditions": {
        "min_primary_shard_size": {
          "condition": "30gb",
          "current": "9gb",
          "shard": 1
        },
        "min_index_age": {
          "condition": "5d",
          "current": "16h",
          "creationDate": 1698679072350
        }
      }
    },
    "enabled": true
  },
  "total_managed_indices": 1
}

but _cat/shards shows different size

# opensearch-cli curl get -P _cat/shards/.ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164
.ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164 0 p STARTED 109287785 37.7gb 10.x.x.16 LOGSTORE-HOT-03
.ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164 0 r STARTED 109287278 37.4gb 10.x.x.14 LOGSTORE-HOT-01
.ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164 1 p STARTED 109283193 37.6gb 10.x.x.14 LOGSTORE-HOT-01
.ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164 1 r STARTED 109283704 37.5gb 10.x.x.15 LOGSTORE-HOT-02
.ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164 2 p STARTED 109285180 37.5gb 10.x.x.15 LOGSTORE-HOT-02
.ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164 2 r STARTED 109285216 37.4gb 10.x.x.17 LOGSTORE-HOT-04
.ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164 3 r STARTED 109276464 37.4gb 10.x.x.16 LOGSTORE-HOT-03
.ds-pe.dir-dovecot-000164 3 p STARTED 109276574 37.9gb 10.x.x.17 LOGSTORE-HOT-04

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